Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 8, 2021

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Mon Oct 26 19:56:35 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I would note that the gap is a little bit narrower in our *forecast*: Biden +5.1 in Pennsylvania vs. +7.8 in the national popular vote. https://t.co/ajG88SznSA — PolitiTweet.org

Biden will more likely than not win anyway, but the size of the gap between the national polling and the PA polling… https://t.co/83vf0AFD7E

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our current trifecta chances: https://t.co/He5gzzliWS — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why is Biden +9.1 in our national poll average but +7.8 in our forecast? * The forecast still assumes just a teensy bit of tightening (about 0.4 points toward Trump) * The forecast is mostly based on state polls, which have been more consistent with an ~8 point lead than 9-10. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated