Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 8, 2021

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Mon Oct 26 19:58:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why is Biden +9.1 in our national poll average but +7.8 in our forecast? * The forecast still assumes just a teensy bit of tightening (about 0.4 points toward Trump) * The forecast is mostly based on state polls, which have been more consistent with an ~8 point lead than 9-10. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I would note that the gap is a little bit narrower in our *forecast*: Biden +5.1 in Pennsylvania vs. +7.8 in the national popular vote. https://t.co/ajG88SznSA — PolitiTweet.org

Biden will more likely than not win anyway, but the size of the gap between the national polling and the PA polling… https://t.co/83vf0AFD7E

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why this state/national poll gap exists is an interesting question. Also there have been points in the year where it seemed to run in the opposite direction, e.g. before the first debate, our model thought Biden led by ~8 points from state polls vs. a ~7 point national poll lead. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated