Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 5, 2021

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Sat Oct 24 21:45:46 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor @Nate_Cohn I do think it's important to look at one's edge cases! But the Economist guys tend to bring up stuff that's more debatable than wrong, and which I'm pretty sure is directionally the right approach in terms of our model's takeaways, even if you can quibble with the implementation. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor @Nate_Cohn If, as a result of that, there can be a negative correlation in certain edge cases (e.g. MS and WA) ... I'm not sure that's right but I'm not sure it's wrong either, but I'll certainly take that if it means we can handle a 2016-style regional/correlated polling error better. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What we can say from the early voting data is that Democratic turnout is likely to be very high. Will Republican turnout be very high also? Yes, I *think* so, very likely. But it's easier to be certain that Democratic turnout will be very high because of the early voting numbers. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated