Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 5, 2021

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Sat Oct 24 21:37:00 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor @Nate_Cohn If, as a result of that, there can be a negative correlation in certain edge cases (e.g. MS and WA) ... I'm not sure that's right but I'm not sure it's wrong either, but I'll certainly take that if it means we can handle a 2016-style regional/correlated polling error better. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor @Nate_Cohn Wasn't criticizing you, to be clear! It's a hard problem and our model leans heavily into assuming that polling errors are *demographically and geographically correlated* across states. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor @Nate_Cohn I do think it's important to look at one's edge cases! But the Economist guys tend to bring up stuff that's more debatable than wrong, and which I'm pretty sure is directionally the right approach in terms of our model's takeaways, even if you can quibble with the implementation. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated