Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 5, 2021

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Sat Oct 24 21:34:54 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor @Nate_Cohn Wasn't criticizing you, to be clear! It's a hard problem and our model leans heavily into assuming that polling errors are *demographically and geographically correlated* across states. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As I wrote earlier, our model will also use the debate as an excuse to lop off some older polling data. That could help Trump in states where the most recent polling has been a bit better for him (say, WI) and Biden were the reverse is true (say IA). But should be pretty minor. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor @Nate_Cohn If, as a result of that, there can be a negative correlation in certain edge cases (e.g. MS and WA) ... I'm not sure that's right but I'm not sure it's wrong either, but I'll certainly take that if it means we can handle a 2016-style regional/correlated polling error better. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated