Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 4, 2021

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Sat Oct 24 21:28:54 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As I wrote earlier, our model will also use the debate as an excuse to lop off some older polling data. That could help Trump in states where the most recent polling has been a bit better for him (say, WI) and Biden were the reverse is true (say IA). But should be pretty minor. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That Gravis result is a good one for Biden, as IVR polls haven't tended to be friendly to him, although Gravis hasn't polled much recently so it's a bit hard to put it into context. But I wouldn't make too much of one IVR poll and the prior should be that the race is ~unchanged. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor @Nate_Cohn Wasn't criticizing you, to be clear! It's a hard problem and our model leans heavily into assuming that polling errors are *demographically and geographically correlated* across states. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated