Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 4, 2021

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Sat Oct 24 21:26:07 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That Gravis result is a good one for Biden, as IVR polls haven't tended to be friendly to him, although Gravis hasn't polled much recently so it's a bit hard to put it into context. But I wouldn't make too much of one IVR poll and the prior should be that the race is ~unchanged. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In terms of post-debate polling: We've got one day's worth of interviews from the 3 daily tracking polls. Biden moved up slightly in IBD/TIPP, down slightly in USC, and SurveyMonkey was unchanged. Plus a Gravis Marketing poll in PA, fully post-debate (Biden +7). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As I wrote earlier, our model will also use the debate as an excuse to lop off some older polling data. That could help Trump in states where the most recent polling has been a bit better for him (say, WI) and Biden were the reverse is true (say IA). But should be pretty minor. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated