Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked July 31, 2021

Created

Thu Oct 22 22:19:37 +0000 2020

Likes

137

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For instance, if you had a fixed estimate of turnout (as X% of registered voters) and you put people who had already voted first in the queue, then mostly GOP election day voters might get crowded out. That's a weird way to do a likely voter model but some pollsters might do it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think there's *probably* more upside risk than downside risk for Democrats here (i.e. that turnout will be bluer than likely voter models project) but I can also imagine scenarios where it leads pollsters to underestimate the R vote instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A bit less contrived: some "unlikely voters" actually do turn out to vote. So if you screen out a bunch of Republican unlikely voters, but you don't screen out as many of the Dem unlikely voters because they've already voted, you could underestimate the GOP vote share. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated