Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 31, 2021

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Thu Oct 22 22:13:41 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think there's *probably* more upside risk than downside risk for Democrats here (i.e. that turnout will be bluer than likely voter models project) but I can also imagine scenarios where it leads pollsters to underestimate the R vote instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's definitely a source of uncertainty and different ways that pollsters are handling early and mail voting vis-a-vis likely voter models probably explains some of the differences we're seeing between polls right now. — PolitiTweet.org

My question for @NateSilver538: How do the numbers of people showing up to vote compare with the models of "likely… https://t.co/l0t5o2qf2O

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For instance, if you had a fixed estimate of turnout (as X% of registered voters) and you put people who had already voted first in the queue, then mostly GOP election day voters might get crowded out. That's a weird way to do a likely voter model but some pollsters might do it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated