Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 31, 2021

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Thu Oct 22 22:23:29 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A bit less contrived: some "unlikely voters" actually do turn out to vote. So if you screen out a bunch of Republican unlikely voters, but you don't screen out as many of the Dem unlikely voters because they've already voted, you could underestimate the GOP vote share. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For instance, if you had a fixed estimate of turnout (as X% of registered voters) and you put people who had already voted first in the queue, then mostly GOP election day voters might get crowded out. That's a weird way to do a likely voter model but some pollsters might do it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

OTOH, some people who are deemed to be likely voters *don't* vote. So the upside case for Dems is if 100% (or more like 98% since there's some ballot spoilage) of the already-voted "likely voters" vote whereas say only 85-90% of election-day likely voters actually follow thru. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated