Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked July 31, 2021

Created

Thu Oct 22 21:55:30 +0000 2020

Likes

1,507

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the other hand, a 10 or 15% chance is *really* different than 0%, both mathematically (1 in 8 is a lot different than 1 in ∞) and practically. So if people's takeaway is that Trump still has a meaningful chance, that's the right takeaway. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Are people overcompensating in the other direction? Probably a bit. But here's the thing. Unless you're interested in gambling/investing or forecast calibration, I'd argue that say a 10 or 15% chance of Trump winning isn't that different from say a 35% chance in practical terms. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@darth My personal confidence level is no higher and no lower than the forecast. I think we mostly make fairly conservative assumptions; on the other hand, there's a lot that's new/different/uncertain about this election, including the widespread use of mail voting. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated