Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 31, 2021

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Thu Oct 22 21:58:53 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@darth My personal confidence level is no higher and no lower than the forecast. I think we mostly make fairly conservative assumptions; on the other hand, there's a lot that's new/different/uncertain about this election, including the widespread use of mail voting. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the other hand, a 10 or 15% chance is *really* different than 0%, both mathematically (1 in 8 is a lot different than 1 in ∞) and practically. So if people's takeaway is that Trump still has a meaningful chance, that's the right takeaway. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@darth It's hard to know. A fair number of the changes to state laws are supposed to be temporary. If the election goes smoothly, I think it will become more permanent. If not—or if Trump wins, in which case Dems may blame mail voting, fairly or not—maybe not. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated