Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 31, 2021

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Thu Oct 22 21:53:49 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Are people overcompensating in the other direction? Probably a bit. But here's the thing. Unless you're interested in gambling/investing or forecast calibration, I'd argue that say a 10 or 15% chance of Trump winning isn't that different from say a 35% chance in practical terms. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If there hadn't been a (not actually all that large!) polling error in 2016, you can imagine the conventional wisdom being *incredibly* certain right now that Trump was going to lose, even more so than four years ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the other hand, a 10 or 15% chance is *really* different than 0%, both mathematically (1 in 8 is a lot different than 1 in ∞) and practically. So if people's takeaway is that Trump still has a meaningful chance, that's the right takeaway. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated