Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 31, 2021

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Thu Oct 22 21:50:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If there hadn't been a (not actually all that large!) polling error in 2016, you can imagine the conventional wisdom being *incredibly* certain right now that Trump was going to lose, even more so than four years ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Clippy is Fivey Fox's father. — PolitiTweet.org

Good to know. But the problem with scrolling down is that you have to keep seeing Fivey Fox, for whom I've develope… https://t.co/3gcbKToW9m

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Are people overcompensating in the other direction? Probably a bit. But here's the thing. Unless you're interested in gambling/investing or forecast calibration, I'd argue that say a 10 or 15% chance of Trump winning isn't that different from say a 35% chance in practical terms. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated