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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 26, 2021

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Thu Oct 22 16:59:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This gap has actually expanded slightly. Returned mail ballots are D+30, while mail ballots **requested but not yet returned** are D+14. The mail ballots that come in late in the process—which in many states, means they'll be counted later—may not be especially blue. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So far, returned mail ballots are D +31 (not a surprise given what polls show) whereas the set of mail ballots that… https://t.co/xucUHvAcfv

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, people treating it as some Law of Nature that Republicans overperform their polls in MI/PA/WI need to recall that exactly the opposite happened in 2012. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Weigel, Re-Animator @daveweigel

One reason some people (me!) under-rated Trump's final numbers in 2016 is that, four years earlier, Obama had consi… https://t.co/FJDZkWuHaC

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Alternatively, I suppose, it could be that lots of Republicans will never return their mail ballots at all. If that signifies an "enthusiasm gap" favoring Democrats, that's bad news for Republican candidates up and down the ballot, obviously. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated