Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 26, 2021

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Wed Oct 21 21:06:47 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So while one can see why this would reduce polling error (if voters lock in their choice earlier, that's nice for pollsters) and that's something to consider when evaluating the chance of a Trump comeback, I think there are still some real challengers for pollsters here. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The caveat (mine, not theirs) is that we haven't seen the huge partisan split in the mail vote in the past like we have this year. If somehow you get the mail vs. in-person calibration off, that could contribute to some pretty large polling errors. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Obviously a fairly awful result for Trump in Michigan, but these other ones he can live with given that Fox News state polls have actually had pretty good numbers for Biden this year. — PolitiTweet.org

🚨 NEW Fox News Polls 🚨 Michigan Biden: 52% Trump: 40% Ohio Trump: 48% Biden: 45% Pennsylvani… https://t.co/29ei1r9l7x

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated