Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 26, 2021

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Wed Oct 21 21:03:56 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The caveat (mine, not theirs) is that we haven't seen the huge partisan split in the mail vote in the past like we have this year. If somehow you get the mail vs. in-person calibration off, that could contribute to some pretty large polling errors. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A JP Morgan note finds states with more mail/absentee voting tend to have *less* polling error. I looked at this too and found that it didn't have much of an effect, although maybe polls were slightly better in these states. There's a big caveat though. https://t.co/6WGAnr57GU https://t.co/3sPcVg4vck — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So while one can see why this would reduce polling error (if voters lock in their choice earlier, that's nice for pollsters) and that's something to consider when evaluating the chance of a Trump comeback, I think there are still some real challengers for pollsters here. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated