Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Wed Oct 21 20:22:35 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi 1) The RCP average includes a lot of spammy GOP-leaning polls in Florida, whereas the higher quality polls in FL have shown Biden with a slightly larger lead. He's probably up 9-10 nationally and 3-4 in FL, which is not *that* big a gap. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How polls handle the early vote (Do they even ask about early voting? Do they treat early voters the same as other "likely voters"?) could contribute to some pretty big house effects down the stretch run here, I'd think. An especially important time to look at poll averages. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi I mean... it was 9-10 points to the right of the country in the midterms. A different electorate in presidential years but maybe it's just getting a bit redder, other things held equal. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated