Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 26, 2021

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Wed Oct 21 20:27:26 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi I mean... it was 9-10 points to the right of the country in the midterms. A different electorate in presidential years but maybe it's just getting a bit redder, other things held equal. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi 1) The RCP average includes a lot of spammy GOP-leaning polls in Florida, whereas the higher quality polls in FL have shown Biden with a slightly larger lead. He's probably up 9-10 nationally and 3-4 in FL, which is not *that* big a gap. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A JP Morgan note finds states with more mail/absentee voting tend to have *less* polling error. I looked at this too and found that it didn't have much of an effect, although maybe polls were slightly better in these states. There's a big caveat though. https://t.co/6WGAnr57GU https://t.co/3sPcVg4vck — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated