Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Wed Oct 21 20:16:59 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How polls handle the early vote (Do they even ask about early voting? Do they treat early voters the same as other "likely voters"?) could contribute to some pretty big house effects down the stretch run here, I'd think. An especially important time to look at poll averages. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Fairly big registered voter / likely voter splits in this poll, which favor Biden. He's +5 among RVs in PA (rather than +10 among LVs) and +2 among RVs in FL in these polls (rather than +4 among LVs). — PolitiTweet.org

New @CNN polls just out: Pennsylvania: Biden 53% Trump 43% Florida: Biden 50% Trump 46% https://t.co/0XJfpi3joy

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi 1) The RCP average includes a lot of spammy GOP-leaning polls in Florida, whereas the higher quality polls in FL have shown Biden with a slightly larger lead. He's probably up 9-10 nationally and 3-4 in FL, which is not *that* big a gap. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated