Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Wed Oct 21 18:04:15 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A bit of mean-reversion here. Quinnipiac had Biden up 13 in Pennsylvania in their previous poll, but Trump ahead by 5 in Texas. These are closer to where Q polls have usually been this year, i.e. maybe 2 points better for Biden than the averages in those states. — PolitiTweet.org

Quinnipiac poll: Texas tied, 47 to 47 percent. Cornyn+6. Biden +8 in Pennsylvania, 51 to 43. https://t.co/47zbRCaNa7

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Getting in the weeds here, but why is winning NC an equally good sign for Biden as winning FL, even though FL has more electoral votes? Because NC's demographics more closely resemble the Midwest than those other states, so NC might tell us more about PA, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

With Suffolk (Biden +6) and Quinnipiac (Biden +8, but treat it more like +6 given their house effect) out in PA today, though, it does go to show that the higher-quality polls show a more solid Biden lead there than the spammy stuff that dominates certain other polling averages. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated