Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Wed Oct 21 16:50:51 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Getting in the weeds here, but why is winning NC an equally good sign for Biden as winning FL, even though FL has more electoral votes? Because NC's demographics more closely resemble the Midwest than those other states, so NC might tell us more about PA, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That starts to depend more on which state we're talking about. Biden is 88% to win if he wins FL but loses AZ and NC. Biden is 89% to win if he wins NC but loses AZ and FL. But only 72% to win if he wins AZ but loses FL and NC. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A bit of mean-reversion here. Quinnipiac had Biden up 13 in Pennsylvania in their previous poll, but Trump ahead by 5 in Texas. These are closer to where Q polls have usually been this year, i.e. maybe 2 points better for Biden than the averages in those states. — PolitiTweet.org

Quinnipiac poll: Texas tied, 47 to 47 percent. Cornyn+6. Biden +8 in Pennsylvania, 51 to 43. https://t.co/47zbRCaNa7

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated