Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Wed Oct 21 16:45:54 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That starts to depend more on which state we're talking about. Biden is 88% to win if he wins FL but loses AZ and NC. Biden is 89% to win if he wins NC but loses AZ and FL. But only 72% to win if he wins AZ but loses FL and NC. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other question is what is Biden wins some of these states but not others. Biden is ~99% to win if he wins *any two* of FL, NC and AZ but Trump wins the other one. But what if he wins just one of the three? — PolitiTweet.org

Some competitive states processing/counting ballots very early, and with a greater potential for winners on electio… https://t.co/X8pmLG33QG

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Getting in the weeds here, but why is winning NC an equally good sign for Biden as winning FL, even though FL has more electoral votes? Because NC's demographics more closely resemble the Midwest than those other states, so NC might tell us more about PA, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated