Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Wed Oct 21 16:45:54 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other question is what is Biden wins some of these states but not others. Biden is ~99% to win if he wins *any two* of FL, NC and AZ but Trump wins the other one. But what if he wins just one of the three? — PolitiTweet.org

Some competitive states processing/counting ballots very early, and with a greater potential for winners on electio… https://t.co/X8pmLG33QG

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I also wonder whether this accounts for some of the gap between the higher-quality polls and the lower-quality ones (higher-quality polls have been better for Biden lately). The higher-quality polls may have more sophisticated ways to account for early voting. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That starts to depend more on which state we're talking about. Biden is 88% to win if he wins FL but loses AZ and NC. Biden is 89% to win if he wins NC but loses AZ and FL. But only 72% to win if he wins AZ but loses FL and NC. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2020 Hibernated