Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Tue Oct 20 20:23:08 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Historically, state polls (if used properly) can often give you a better estimate of the national popular vote than national polls, although recently a lot of the higher-quality data has been on the national side so this might be an exception. https://t.co/L7bcUHUGzv — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So to get a little wonky, we've seen the **state poll vs. national poll** gap increase, but that's not quite the same thing as the electoral college vs. the popular vote. If you imputed a popular vote based on the state polls, it would imply Biden is up ~9 nationally, not 10/11. — PolitiTweet.org

We’ve seen the pop vote/electoral tipping point open up quite a bit. https://t.co/QEpmROOEt9

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes Probably, yeah, although it's hard to know since we don't get many polls of non-competitive states. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated