Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Tue Oct 20 20:20:39 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So to get a little wonky, we've seen the **state poll vs. national poll** gap increase, but that's not quite the same thing as the electoral college vs. the popular vote. If you imputed a popular vote based on the state polls, it would imply Biden is up ~9 nationally, not 10/11. — PolitiTweet.org

We’ve seen the pop vote/electoral tipping point open up quite a bit. https://t.co/QEpmROOEt9

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You can sorta kinda see some patterns here, where Biden's biggest gains since the debate have tended to come in the Southeast (e.g. NC and FL) whereas he hasn't gained much in the Upper Midwest. But could easily be noise especially given a fairly low-quality mix of polling. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Historically, state polls (if used properly) can often give you a better estimate of the national popular vote than national polls, although recently a lot of the higher-quality data has been on the national side so this might be an exception. https://t.co/L7bcUHUGzv — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated