Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 29, 2021

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Sat Oct 17 15:05:15 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Anyway, when it comes to vote counting and the timing of when states are called or what the results look like on a given point on Nov. 3, 4, etc. people are actually oversimplifying when they talk about mail votes (D) vs. in-person votes (R). There are really 5 relevant tranches: — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also keep in that in the world in which the race is close enough for this to matter is probably a world in which Trump has made a fairly big comeback to close the race to say Biden +5. If there's late movement toward Trump, late-received mail ballots might not be so blue at all. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1. Early-arriving mail votes (VERY D) 2. Late-arriving mail votes (probably somewhat D, but hard to say) 3. Early in-person votes (somewhat D) 4. In-person Election Day votes (VERY R) 5. Provisional ballots (traditionally D but harder to say this year) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated