Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked June 17, 2021

Created

Mon Oct 12 19:26:26 +0000 2020

Likes

668

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd say no, because you can't assume the late-arriving mail ballots will have the same partisan composition as the ones you got so far. Maybe (especially given mixed messages from Trump) GOP voters were more likely to procrastinate before sending ballots in, for instance. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 12, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are also questions like: let's say Biden is ahead by 100K votes in Michigan as of midnight, and there are also an estimated 500K late-arriving mail ballots, and the mail ballots so far heavily favored Biden. Can you call the state for Biden? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 12, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But if Trump starts to delegitimize the election when it seems *very likely* that Biden will win (that, for instance, he's won FL and NC/PA/MI/WI all seem highly likely to vote for him but are not callable yet) that puts the networks in a tricky spot, I think. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 12, 2020 Hibernated