Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 17, 2021

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Mon Oct 12 19:26:25 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are also questions like: let's say Biden is ahead by 100K votes in Michigan as of midnight, and there are also an estimated 500K late-arriving mail ballots, and the mail ballots so far heavily favored Biden. Can you call the state for Biden? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One fairly likely scenario is that it's readily apparent that Biden has won by Election Night but the networks won't call the race per se because they're being conservative about states that have outstanding mail ballots. https://t.co/5R5RVsfqs6 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd say no, because you can't assume the late-arriving mail ballots will have the same partisan composition as the ones you got so far. Maybe (especially given mixed messages from Trump) GOP voters were more likely to procrastinate before sending ballots in, for instance. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 12, 2020 Hibernated