Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Sep 22 06:12:18 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the other hand, mail ballots are rejected at higher rates than in-person ballots, and that discrepancy might be higher when a lot of people are voting for the first time. So a party that does more mail voting could underperform polls. It's hard to say which effect is larger. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One one hand, there's evidence mail voting increases turnout. A number of people (perhaps 5-15% in a presidential election) deemed "likely voters" in polls don't actually wind up voting, conversely. So a party that "locks in" its votes via mail voting might over-perform polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The simple answer here has always been that the GOP would confirm someone, because it's worth an awful lot to them, and also that they'll pay a price for doing so, because it's worth paying a price for something that's worth a lot to you. — PolitiTweet.org

I mean I dunno what's gonna happen with the Supreme Court. But I do think people are overthinking it a bit. Probabl… https://t.co/n9mOU2ndBw

Posted Sept. 22, 2020 Hibernated