Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Sep 22 06:12:18 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One one hand, there's evidence mail voting increases turnout. A number of people (perhaps 5-15% in a presidential election) deemed "likely voters" in polls don't actually wind up voting, conversely. So a party that "locks in" its votes via mail voting might over-perform polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I do think the transition to high rates of mail voting is one of the bigger potential sources of polling error, especially with the mail vote likely to be disproportionately Democratic, although it's hard to know in which direction the error might occur. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the other hand, mail ballots are rejected at higher rates than in-person ballots, and that discrepancy might be higher when a lot of people are voting for the first time. So a party that does more mail voting could underperform polls. It's hard to say which effect is larger. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 22, 2020 Hibernated