Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 26, 2021

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Mon Sep 21 17:47:57 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So the GOP probably loses those seats BUT gets a conservative justice, whom McSally and Gardner will vote for. Which net-net is a good trade. (One Supreme Court >> 2 Senate seats for 6 years). The GOP has the luxury of having a lot of cards to play to make those sorts of trades. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

McSally and Gardner are instructive. Trump is not popular in their states (especially CO). If their focus were on winning re-election, it is quite insane for them to support Trump as often as they have. But that's not their only focus. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FYI, in response to criticisms along these lines, USC is now showing a 14-day version of their poll. It has been much more stable, and that's the one we'll be using in our polling averages going forward. https://t.co/9oj2jlKZD8 — PolitiTweet.org

Here's something odd about the USC poll that makes it hard to interpret. The poll consists of a panel of people who… https://t.co/kuTOeLDlQM

Posted Sept. 21, 2020 Hibernated