Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 26, 2021

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Mon Sep 21 17:47:57 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

McSally and Gardner are instructive. Trump is not popular in their states (especially CO). If their focus were on winning re-election, it is quite insane for them to support Trump as often as they have. But that's not their only focus. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A problem with this is that the GOP is willing to trade off electoral success for big victories on policies and judges. So their advantage in the Senate translates to shifting policy well to the right of what the average voter would prefer, not necessarily winning every election. — PolitiTweet.org

It's a "lasting" disadvantage that has currently lasted for six years (since the last Dem Senate majority) or ten (… https://t.co/X30Plmie1N

Posted Sept. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So the GOP probably loses those seats BUT gets a conservative justice, whom McSally and Gardner will vote for. Which net-net is a good trade. (One Supreme Court >> 2 Senate seats for 6 years). The GOP has the luxury of having a lot of cards to play to make those sorts of trades. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 21, 2020 Hibernated