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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other point of context about the Senate: The battle for the Senate has often been quite *competitive* in recent elections, which might seem to contradict the notion that there's a built-in GOP advantage. But that's not necessarily how these things work. — PolitiTweet.org

We ran the numbers, and the Senate is currently around *6 to 7 points* (!) more Republican than the country as a wh… https://t.co/fPu0pcKHBz

Posted Sept. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

OK, here's a "fun" question. Our model has Biden with similar odds (about 1 in 3) of winning each of Iowa, Georgia and Texas. If you had to bet on him winning one of the 3, which would you bet on? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The reason being that McConnell and Trump can use the GOP's advantage in the Senate to pursue a very conservative, largely unpopular agenda, even if it risks losing the chamber. Indeed, the equilibrium probably involves taking on some electoral risk for wins on policy and judges. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 20, 2020 Hibernated