Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 16, 2021

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Sun Sep 20 16:43:15 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The reason being that McConnell and Trump can use the GOP's advantage in the Senate to pursue a very conservative, largely unpopular agenda, even if it risks losing the chamber. Indeed, the equilibrium probably involves taking on some electoral risk for wins on policy and judges. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other point of context about the Senate: The battle for the Senate has often been quite *competitive* in recent elections, which might seem to contradict the notion that there's a built-in GOP advantage. But that's not necessarily how these things work. — PolitiTweet.org

We ran the numbers, and the Senate is currently around *6 to 7 points* (!) more Republican than the country as a wh… https://t.co/fPu0pcKHBz

Posted Sept. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

i.e. given the choice between a) Pursue a moderate agenda and win the Senate 80-90% because of the GOP's built-in advantage. -or- b) Pursue a very conservative agenda, which is unpopular, but still win the Senate ~60% of the time because of the GOP's advantage They choose b) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 20, 2020 Hibernated