Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Sep 18 18:40:16 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But for the time being, most of Trump's not-inconsiderable hopes of winning re-election stem from tightening the race. Either tightening it to the point where the swing states are actually a toss-up, or at least enough that a *small* polling error (~2 points) would do the trick. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden could probably also survive a 3-point error, depending on where it's distributed. If it came in the *exact* same places as in 2016, it would be close, but it probably wouldn't be exactly the same. With a 4-5 point error (also possible! but less likely) that gets very tight. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Anyway, I'm fine with almost every Trump Still Has A Chance take. (Because... he *does*). That was basically the headline on our feature when we launched our model! But don't pretend it's some sort of bold, contrarian take! It may be the most conventional opinion of all time. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated