Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Sep 18 18:37:41 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden could probably also survive a 3-point error, depending on where it's distributed. If it came in the *exact* same places as in 2016, it would be close, but it probably wouldn't be exactly the same. With a 4-5 point error (also possible! but less likely) that gets very tight. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So let's say by the time we get to Election Day, there's a 40% chance that polls are off by 3 or more points. It's probably somewhere in that vicinity. But half the time, they're off in Biden's direction, not Trump's. Thus, there's a 20% chance of a big error that helps Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But for the time being, most of Trump's not-inconsiderable hopes of winning re-election stem from tightening the race. Either tightening it to the point where the swing states are actually a toss-up, or at least enough that a *small* polling error (~2 points) would do the trick. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated