Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked April 27, 2021

Created

Fri Sep 18 18:32:55 +0000 2020

Likes

525

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So let's say by the time we get to Election Day, there's a 40% chance that polls are off by 3 or more points. It's probably somewhere in that vicinity. But half the time, they're off in Biden's direction, not Trump's. Thus, there's a 20% chance of a big error that helps Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A point that Poll Guys (and Gals) could make a bit more forcefully is that while there indeed is reason to be concerned about polling error (and perhaps to think it could be higher this year) it's *very* hard to predict the direction of that error. It could favor Trump…or Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden could probably also survive a 3-point error, depending on where it's distributed. If it came in the *exact* same places as in 2016, it would be close, but it probably wouldn't be exactly the same. With a 4-5 point error (also possible! but less likely) that gets very tight. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated