Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Sep 18 18:30:00 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A point that Poll Guys (and Gals) could make a bit more forcefully is that while there indeed is reason to be concerned about polling error (and perhaps to think it could be higher this year) it's *very* hard to predict the direction of that error. It could favor Trump…or Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Can't believe it took until Sept. 18 for someone to realize that the polls could be wrong again and Trump could win. Quite the canny observation. Completely undercuts both the mainstream media narrative and the Poll Guys, both of whom [checks notes] bring this up constantly. — PolitiTweet.org

Ok this is pretty huge: the NYT says that if polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Trump will win. This means we… https://t.co/Qplz68XCTr

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So let's say by the time we get to Election Day, there's a 40% chance that polls are off by 3 or more points. It's probably somewhere in that vicinity. But half the time, they're off in Biden's direction, not Trump's. Thus, there's a 20% chance of a big error that helps Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated