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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Sep 18 18:25:13 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Can't believe it took until Sept. 18 for someone to realize that the polls could be wrong again and Trump could win. Quite the canny observation. Completely undercuts both the mainstream media narrative and the Poll Guys, both of whom [checks notes] bring this up constantly. — PolitiTweet.org

Nathan J Robinson @NathanJRobinson

Ok this is pretty huge: the NYT says that if polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Trump will win. This means we… https://t.co/Qplz68XCTr

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So if you take that at face value, Biden's m.o. is basically "find 270 EV from Clinton states + MI + WI + PA + AZ + Nebraska-2 and anything else you win is a bonus". Not at all a bad position, but it does diminish the importance of FL and NC a bit. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A point that Poll Guys (and Gals) could make a bit more forcefully is that while there indeed is reason to be concerned about polling error (and perhaps to think it could be higher this year) it's *very* hard to predict the direction of that error. It could favor Trump…or Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2020 Hibernated