Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Sep 16 21:50:53 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's a lot going on with the forecast. It's regressed toward a prior that assumes the race will tighten, but the prior is weighted less over time. It has a subtle convention bounce adjustment. Still, it relies heavily on state polls, and it's *not* clear those have tightened. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But again, though, it's not entirely clear that the race is tightening. Our popular vote *forecast* (a forecast, not a polling average or snapshot) is holding pretty steady at Biden +6.7. https://t.co/ajG88SznSA https://t.co/mCzYIA0BY8 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And in general, imputing the national popular vote from state polls is actually a bit more accurate than national polls on their own. It's a lot more work to do it, but sometimes it's worth it, e.g. state polls correctly implied a larger Obama win in 2012 than national polls did. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated