Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Sep 16 22:00:17 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And in general, imputing the national popular vote from state polls is actually a bit more accurate than national polls on their own. It's a lot more work to do it, but sometimes it's worth it, e.g. state polls correctly implied a larger Obama win in 2012 than national polls did. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's a lot going on with the forecast. It's regressed toward a prior that assumes the race will tighten, but the prior is weighted less over time. It has a subtle convention bounce adjustment. Still, it relies heavily on state polls, and it's *not* clear those have tightened. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@skepticalsports It's still not clear to me whether it was intended to signal suppression even though it might have seemed to imply mitigation, or whether it was indeed a call for mitigation as opposed to suppression. Probably a mix of both depending on who you ask. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 17, 2020 Hibernated