Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Sep 16 21:48:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But again, though, it's not entirely clear that the race is tightening. Our popular vote *forecast* (a forecast, not a polling average or snapshot) is holding pretty steady at Biden +6.7. https://t.co/ajG88SznSA https://t.co/mCzYIA0BY8 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Do I think that's what's going on here? To be honest, *probably* not; I think its more likely Trump is being helped a bit by (slightly) improving COVID and economic conditions, plus it's hard to sustain a 8-9 point lead in a polarized climate. But, it's hard to say. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's a lot going on with the forecast. It's regressed toward a prior that assumes the race will tighten, but the prior is weighted less over time. It has a subtle convention bounce adjustment. Still, it relies heavily on state polls, and it's *not* clear those have tightened. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated