Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Sep 16 21:45:58 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Do I think that's what's going on here? To be honest, *probably* not; I think its more likely Trump is being helped a bit by (slightly) improving COVID and economic conditions, plus it's hard to sustain a 8-9 point lead in a polarized climate. But, it's hard to say. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, convention bounces can persist a bit longer than people might assume. Our empirical analysis says it can affect polls for ~3 weeks from the final date of the convention. We're still (barely) within that period, and keep in mind that some polls are released with a lag. — PolitiTweet.org

If the next wave of polls, ideally with some national confirmation for stronger trendlines, shows something more li… https://t.co/l3rIsUFfer

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But again, though, it's not entirely clear that the race is tightening. Our popular vote *forecast* (a forecast, not a polling average or snapshot) is holding pretty steady at Biden +6.7. https://t.co/ajG88SznSA https://t.co/mCzYIA0BY8 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated