Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Sep 16 17:50:38 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, recently Trump has been getting some fairly awful results in swing state polls while national polls have tightened a bit. It is fairly likely that is noise, i.e. that Trump is getting a little unlucky in state polls but lucky in national polls and things will even out. But... — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin Trafalgar at least has some sort of "shy Trump" theory, but they haven't explained it too well and even if it holds, I'm not sure it's appropriate to apply to an IVR poll. Rasmussen just honestly doesn't give a shit, I don't think. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

...one alternative explanation is if Trump is making gains in red states, perhaps consolidating his base especially in states with no Biden ads running, which we wouldn't know very much about because most pollsters aren't polling, say, Idaho very much. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated