Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Sep 16 17:50:39 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

...one alternative explanation is if Trump is making gains in red states, perhaps consolidating his base especially in states with no Biden ads running, which we wouldn't know very much about because most pollsters aren't polling, say, Idaho very much. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, recently Trump has been getting some fairly awful results in swing state polls while national polls have tightened a bit. It is fairly likely that is noise, i.e. that Trump is getting a little unlucky in state polls but lucky in national polls and things will even out. But... — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Anyway, Quinnipiac should have polls of SC and KY out later today which can help us to test this theory. Again, I don't think it's super likely, but there's a lot of "dark matter" when comparing national and state polls because ~2/3 of Americans don't live in swing states. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 16, 2020 Hibernated