Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Sep 15 17:22:52 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW our forecast doesn't really use national polls for much. Their main purpose is for detecting a trend line, which is used to adjust polling averages in states with little recent polling. But with swing states having lots of polling lately, that adjustment doesn't matter much. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden's lead has slipped a bit in national polls to +7.0, but you'd be hard-pressed to find the same slippage in state polls and that's where most of the action has been lately. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Internally the model also calculates a national snapshot which is basically where it thinks the race currently stands based mostly on *state* polling. We don't publish that number (maybe we should) but it looks like it's closer to Biden +8 than Biden +7 right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 15, 2020 Hibernated