Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Sep 08 13:34:52 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart I mean, I think there's always the question of how people are experiencing the economy vs. what the "objective" data says. I think that's an intrinsic issue with economic fundamentals models, and one reason why they aren't all that accurate out-of-sample. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3. Labor Day is an inflection point where polls *begin* to get more reliable. But we're still at just the beginning of the end, if you will. There are still the debates and lots of campaigning and news left to go. 4. Polls are off by an average of ~3 points on Election Day. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart FWIW, though, we don't use GDP in our model. 4 of the 6 factors we consider (payrolls, disposable income, inflation, stocks) are stuff that's fairly visible to people. And the 5th (personal consumption expenditures) can reflect consumer confidence fairly well. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 8, 2020 Hibernated