Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Sep 08 13:37:24 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart FWIW, though, we don't use GDP in our model. 4 of the 6 factors we consider (payrolls, disposable income, inflation, stocks) are stuff that's fairly visible to people. And the 5th (personal consumption expenditures) can reflect consumer confidence fairly well. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart I mean, I think there's always the question of how people are experiencing the economy vs. what the "objective" data says. I think that's an intrinsic issue with economic fundamentals models, and one reason why they aren't all that accurate out-of-sample. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

McCain was probably bound to lose anyway (his lead at this point reflected a Palin/convention bounce, at least in part) but a reminder that basically the entire financial crisis played out between this point in the campaign and the election in 2008. News can still happen. — PolitiTweet.org

The @FiveThirtyEight nat'l polling average with 56 days until E-Day: 2020: Biden+7.5* 2016: Clinton+2.0 2012: Obam… https://t.co/RxdJtBnf0v

Posted Sept. 8, 2020 Hibernated