Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sun Sep 06 21:44:04 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn It's very close to 50/50 though (Trump's small edge comes from incumbency at this point.) Err I should say in the popular vote. I can see an argument that the prior should be calibrated off the tipping-point state instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn Yeah that's basically what the prior is trying to say, in our view (i.e. how would a generic elected incumbent be doing under these conditions). There's a sense in which it feels weird to treat Trump as a generic *anything*, but I'm not sure how to operationalize that in a model. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @DavidLJarman: I'm worried you may not be talking to enough people in enough different locations? It's too bad there's no way to use a c… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Retweet Hibernated